North Carolina
W-L: (12- 4) PR = 98.7051Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 207 H Jacksonville ASUN (10- 5, 95.9) 11-10 213 H High Point Atlantic 10 ( 6- 8, 93.3) 20- 9 215 H Iona MAAC ( 2-15, 84.3) 23- 7 220 H Johns Hopkins B1G ( 9- 5, 96.5) 17- 9 227 A Penn Ivy ( 7- 6, 95.5) 11- 9 301 A Princeton Ivy (13- 2, 99.4) 9-11 307 H Brown Ivy ( 6- 7, 93.2) 19- 7 314 N Penn State B1G ( 9- 5, 99.2) 10- 8 321 H Army West Point Patriot (13- 3, 98.0) 12-11 329 N Harvard Ivy ( 9- 5, 96.7) 17- 7 404 H Syracuse ACC (11- 5, 98.6) 14- 9 411 A Notre Dame ACC (10- 2, 99.9) 5-10 418 A Virginia ACC (10- 6, 98.6) 16-15 425 H Duke ACC ( 9- 4, 98.6) 12-16 501 N Syracuse ACC (11- 5, 98.6) 12-10 o 503 N Virginia ACC (10- 6, 98.6) 6-16 o
PREDICTION LIST
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|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
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Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
207 H Jacksonville 11-10 1 4 - -3.21
213 H High Point 20- 9 11 7 0.19
215 H Iona 23- 7 16 16 0.00
220 H Johns Hopkins 17- 9 8 4 + 3.37
227 A Penn 11- 9 2 2 0.22
301 A Princeton 9-11 -2 -2 0.09
307 H Brown 19- 7 12 7 0.10
314 N Penn State 10- 8 2 -1 + 2.53
321 H Army West Point 12-11 1 2 -1.04
329 N Harvard 17- 7 10 2 ++ 4.95
404 H Syracuse 14- 9 5 1 + 3.56
411 A Notre Dame 5-10 -5 -3 - -2.43
418 A Virginia 16-15 1 -1 + 2.28
425 H Duke 12-16 -4 1 -- -5.46
501 N Syracuse 12-10 o 2 0 1.94
503 N Virginia 6-16 o -10 0 --- -7.10
|
UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 503 N Virginia 6-16 o -10 0 --- -7.10 425 H Duke 12-16 -4 1 -- -5.46 207 H Jacksonville 11-10 1 4 - -3.21 411 A Notre Dame 5-10 -5 -3 - -2.43 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 329 N Harvard 17- 7 10 2 ++ 4.95 220 H Johns Hopkins 17- 9 8 4 + 3.37 314 N Penn State 10- 8 2 -1 + 2.53 404 H Syracuse 14- 9 5 1 + 3.56 418 A Virginia 16-15 1 -1 + 2.28 |
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 14.31
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
3 H Jacksonville (10- 5, 95.9) 11-10 -4.03 16.57 -1.38 0.89 27.18
3 H High Point ( 6- 8, 93.3) 20- 9 -6.63 13.97 -1.38 0.89 22.53
3 H Iona ( 2-15, 84.3) 23- 7 -15.64 4.95 -1.38 0.89 6.40
3 H Johns Hopkins ( 9- 5, 96.5) 17- 9 -3.45 17.15 -1.38 0.89 28.22
3 A Penn ( 7- 6, 95.5) 11- 9 -4.35 16.25 1.38 0.89 31.52
3 A Princeton (13- 2, 99.4) 9-11 -0.48 20.12 1.38 0.89 -0.40
3 H Brown ( 6- 7, 93.2) 19- 7 -6.72 13.88 -1.38 0.89 22.37
3 N Penn State ( 9- 5, 99.2) 10- 8 -0.67 19.93 -0.00 0.89 35.66
3 H Army West Poin (13- 3, 98.0) 12-11 -1.86 18.74 -1.38 0.89 31.06
3 N Harvard ( 9- 5, 96.7) 17- 7 -3.24 17.35 -0.00 0.89 31.05
3 H Syracuse (11- 5, 98.6) 14- 9 -1.26 19.34 -1.38 0.89 32.14
3 A Notre Dame (10- 2, 99.9) 5-10 -0.00 20.60 1.38 0.89 -0.61
3 A Virginia (10- 6, 98.6) 16-15 -1.29 19.31 1.38 0.89 37.00
3 H Duke ( 9- 4, 98.6) 12-16 -1.28 19.32 -1.38 0.89 -1.19
3 N Syracuse (11- 5, 98.6) 12-10 -1.26 19.34 -0.00 0.89 34.60
3 N Virginia (10- 6, 98.6) 6-16 -1.29 19.31 -0.00 0.89 -0.58
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336.96
|
winning pts = 339.7410 losing points = -2.7824
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
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| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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